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8/16/2007

Redenomination, Who's losing?

"So when we graduate, we'll be earning like 10bay per month" was the first thing my cousin told me yesterday when I got home. "if you know anybody that has money abroad, better advise them to start bringing it back" was a colleague's reaction to the gist. The gist of Soludo's planned redenomination has spread like wildfire; trust nigerians, any gist that sounds like conspiracy spreads fast. My initial reaction was also one of alarm, what will happen to the few hundred pounds my pops has had in a UK bank since the 80's would they suddenly become valueless? A little thinking and I realise that the redenomination will have no effect on the value of that. Yes, given it won't be equivalent to tens of thousands of naira anymore but it will still have the same purchasing power.
My point exactly? No need for panic. We won't all be millionaires or thousandnaires anymore but nobody is headed for huge losses; not from money abroad, not from stocks, nothing. The effect is largely psychological.
Though my question here is this: why did he bother printing new notes in the first place? also we shouldn't forget that it was under him that 1000 naira notes were released. This reflects short-sightedness on the part of Nigeria's policy makers. Either that or the Government doesn't give enough free-hand to these people to make long-term plans resulting in a new minister, new policy effect. That should be corrected, not just in the monetary sector but all sectors as well cos this redenomination is going to cost nigeria in terms of printing new currencies (i hope you are aware that a new naira for all notes and coins will have to be introduced, sorry to disappoint those who have already started digging holes and stashing 5, 10, and 20 naira notes hoping for a x100 increase come sept next yr).
My second problem is that reasons presented for this redenomination include removal of artificial inflation, better perception and acceptance of the currency across the continent etc, I am of the school of thought that such should be pursued from an economic rather than monetary standpoint; remove corruption, give us uninterrupted power supply and you'll will get all that and more. Monetary value of a currency can never be compared to economic strength of its owning country; the latter always comes out tops. Take Japan for example, the exchange rate of the Yen to the US dollar is above 100 yen to the dollar but the Japanese economy is the second strongest which is what really matters.
Nevertheless, I must congratulate Soludo for shaking the country once more, if the NEPA MD and other folks could actually stand up and surprise Nigerians like him, we get along faster than we have now. For the while, lets see how it goes.

2 comments:

TDVA said...

i think it's a good idea. i just hope the actual cost of goods will drop accordingly.

bighead said...

The cost of goods shouldn't really come down by much. Its the currency used to purchase them that will change. The currency will still bear the same name: naira but it will be the new naira and will be 100x more valuable than the old one.